Эксперт: война в Газе возобновится через две-три недели.

Руководство ХАМАСа все более отчетливо понимает, что его достижения в вооруженном противостоянии с Израилем оказались призрачными.

Блокада Газы продолжается, КПП в Рафиахе не возобновил работу, зарплата чиновникам не выплачена. Все это угрожает Израилю новым витком эскалации, с помощью которой ХАМАС обычно «напоминает о своем существовании».

Как пишет в Walla  известный эксперт по Ближнему Востоку, арабист Ави Иссахаров, параллельно наметился раскол в правительстве национального единства ПА: пока Абу-Мазен мечтает об израильском отступлении из Иудеи и Самарии через три года, Машаль и Хания требуют немедленных «проявлений независимости» в Газе.

Пока Абу-Мазен не идет на открытую конфронтацию с ХАМАСом, так как ему важно предстать перед международным сообществом в качестве единого лидера палестинского народа. Далее возможны два варианта: если очередная мирная инициатива Абу-Мазена будет отвергнута, то он может пойти на сближение с ХАМАСом и начать совместные действия против Израиля. О такой возможности он, в частности, заявил вчера в ходе интервью египетским журналистам в Каире.

С другой стороны,  Абу-Мазену не нужен сильный и хорошо вооруженный ХАМАС, который представляет угрозу его власти в Палестинской автономии и в Газе, реконструкция которой возложена на администрацию Рамаллы.

С момента прекращения огня прошло уже 18 дней, однако за это время ничего не изменилось. Абу-Мазен явно не торопиться приступить к выполнению своих обязанностей по реконструкции Газы. В ХАМАСе в свою очередь утверждают, что ситуация стала еще хуже, чем до начала операции «Нерушимая скала».

В минувшую пятницу Исмаил Хания , выступая с речью в Газе в мечети квартала Шати, открыто заявил, что ХАМАС готов к возобновлению войны. «Сионисты не оставляют нам другого выбора», — заявил он.

«Подобные угрозы трудно игнорировать. На фоне противоречий с ФАТХом, застоя в переговорах с Израилем, продолжения блокады Газы не будет большим сюрпризом, если через две-три недели война возобновится», — приходит к выводу Ави Исахаров.


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